From Santa Barbara to the Gulf: Scientists synthesize decades of data to protect a changing Texas coast

Trapped inside on a cool, sunny day in Santa Barbara, California, a group of scientists are deep in discussion. It’s November 2023, and the group is at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), a synthesis center in the U.S. that has supported hundreds of scientific synthesis working groups like this one.

This working group of Texas scientists has traveled to NCEAS to synthesize long-term data with the goal of understanding how severe weather events impact Texas estuaries. 

“The idea is along the Texas coast, we’ve got a lot of biogeochemical and fishery data, but we never have a chance to synthesize it,” said Dr. Zhanfei Liu, professor at the University of Texas Marine Science Institute and co-lead of the working group. Through scientific synthesis, the group will transform several existing, disparate datasets into knowledge that informs environmental policy.

To inform state environmental policy, resource managers share their insights on the long-term data and decision-making with these scientists. Having the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) as members of the working group means the final synthesis products will respond to their fishery management needs.

This working group was in the first cohort of the Gulf Ecosystem Initiative (GEI), a $3.5 million partnership between NCEAS and the NOAA RESTORE Science Program to fund synthesis science and postdoctoral research for the Gulf. The GEI working groups conduct synthesis research that integrates knowledge from different disciplines, is cross-sectoral and tackles pressing scientific and societal challenges through collaboration and innovation. 

A resource rich Texas coast

The Texas coast has experienced its fair share of severe weather events, including hurricanes, floods, drought, and freezes. The changing frequency and severity of these events pose challenges for communities living on the coast and those managing the estuarine resources on which people depend. Moreover, the state of Texas is confronting a worsening problem – water supply is not keeping up with demand. The population is growing rapidly, and more freshwater is being diverted to cities upstream of the coast. This means that less freshwater which supports estuarine habitats is making it downstream.

There is a natural gradient along the Texas coast of more rainfall and riverine freshwater inflow at the upper coast that decreases as you move south. Galveston Bay in the upper coast and Aransas Bay in the central coast serve as contrasting systems spanning this gradient. Comparing the impacts of severe weather events on fisheries in these two bay systems was the focus of the synthesis effort.

These two bay systems also have long-term monitoring datasets going back decades. State agencies, academic institutions, and other organizations in the area are dedicated to monitoring how these habitats are changing over time and space. “The scientists in the working group  have been doing a lot of work in these two systems so we know these two systems really well,” Liu said. 

One of those scientists is Dr. Antonietta Quigg, regents professor at Texas A&M University at Galveston. “As someone who lives on Galveston Bay and works in Galveston Bay, I was really interested in being part of a conversation that could synthesize long-term datasets and create a mechanism to talk to the state and federal agencies,” she said. Working in the system for 22 years, she was excited at the opportunity to address the state’s environmental challenges.

The working group proposed to synthesize environmental data, like water quality and chemistry, and biological monitoring data, like zooplankton and fish, with the goal of supporting TPWD in their management of state fisheries. TPWD provided their 40-year independent fisheries dataset covering the eight major bay systems. 

“It’s really easy to take a dataset and start looking at relationships and come to some conclusions that don’t make any sense if you don’t really know how that data looks on the landscape,” said Dr. Zachary Olsen, program director of the Ecosystem Resources Program for TPWD’s Coastal Fisheries Division. He is intimately familiar with the datasets given his 13 years with TPWD’s monitoring programs and fisheries management.

Olsen explained how TPWD teams collect nekton, such as small crustaceans, and adult and juvenile fish using bag seine, trawl, and gillnet surveys. TPWD uses this long-term data to track and manage populations as well as understand what’s causing the population trends they observe.

TPWD’s participation in the working group from the beginning was crucial. “I think it’s a valuable role when we can have managers weigh in early on and give a real world perspective of fisheries management, and help to guide the analysis and guide the products,” Olsen said.

The working group at work

Over the course of two years, the Texas working group met at NCEAS three times.The first meeting was a chance to build on existing relationships and form new ones. It was also an opportunity to dive into what was possible. “The first one was really a discovery process. All of us trying to figure out what we had actually signed ourselves up for,” Quigg said. “It really was just talking about what data is available? What is the group’s interest?”

The working group had varied interest in topics and questions given their range of expertise, institutions, and career stage. 

Two postdoctoral researchers also funded through the GEI joined the group. One of the postdocs, Dr. Mai Fung, was excited at the prospect of using long-term monitoring data to make an impact on the Gulf, where she had recently completed her PhD at the University of South Alabama working out of the Dauphin Island Sea Lab.

Fung balanced research on her independent project with the analytical needs of the working group. “During the in-person meetings, we would present what we had, and then, because the other working group members have more expertise, they were able to zero in and be like, No, you should do it this way or that way, or you need to think about this,” she said. “It was just like having a ton of mentors around.”

The working group proceeded with this back and forth in the hybrid meetings and over virtual meetings in between. Different time periods, spatial scales, and methods of collecting data meant that merging disparate datasets didn’t always work out.

What was possible in their project timeframe and what was important to TPWD provided the guidance of where to focus. For severe weather events, Olsen noted drought is a main focus for TPWD. Fung was also able to see notable differences in fisheries populations that matched dry and wet periods.

The working group also dialed in on blue crab populations, an important fishery to the Gulf with a puzzling and troublesome trend. “We’ve been watching a reduction in blue crab populations over the past three decades,” Olsen said. “It’s unique to the full Gulf, which suggests that it’s not just a fishery issue.” Understanding the influence of drought on the blue crab population had potential to impact management objectives across the region.

By the third meeting this summer, the working group was well on its way to reviewing the products of their synthesis effort and looking ahead to next steps. Scientists in the room recognized how TPWD’s involvement grounded their products. “They were really good about getting us to be more thoughtful about the things that we were saying were important. They were also really good about explaining what is ‘doable’ for resource managers,” Quigg said.

Liu spoke highly of TPWD’s participation and knowledge of the bays and monitoring data. “They are so dedicated and offered so much along the way. I think their contribution is tremendous. I have never seen any agency be so responsive.”

As an early career scientist, Fung’s perspective on science and management partnerships continues to evolve. “Every collaboration is so different. You learn a lot with each of them. Because they involve so many people, they sometimes feel overwhelming and unwieldy. More and more, I feel even though they’re hard, we really need to keep doing them.”

Beyond the products  

In the end, there was only so much time, and the synthesis project spawned more questions and future directions.

Two manuscripts led by the postdoctoral researchers were key products of the effort. Fung’s journal article on the responses of blue crab abundance to drought severity will be published in the coming months. The other postdoc, Dr. Ray Czaja, constructed food web models for understanding how severe weather interacts with feeding relationships to influence fisheries populations. Each manuscript also includes a section on how the work applies to management needs.

Olsen sees several ways these findings will be useful for management. “There’s a real value when we understand causation of population trends that helps us manage expectations of management actions,” he said. This work will support TPWD in determining the impacts of actions they could take as well as build an argument for regional management along the diverse Texas coastline. 

The postdoctoral researchers made important contributions to the group and grew as professionals. “For me, it’s all about the young people,” Liu said. “It’s pretty rewarding to see them grow along the way, let them experience data analysis, networking with colleagues and how you take criticism in a positive way.”

The third product of the synthesis project will be a perspective paper led by Liu. The paper is meant to be accessible to a wider audience and detail what the group did, why it’s important, and what the next steps should be. “I think that’s a really important outcome of the workshop as well,” Quigg said. “Not just the actual goal of the workshop, which was to do the synthesis work, but then also to look forward and say, okay, based on what we’ve done, these are the important next steps.”

As a postdoctoral researcher, Fung widened and grew her network. “My favorite part is definitely the people that I’ve met […] and see[ing] them beyond their professional or scientific persona,” she said. “I’ve made a lot of really great friends at NCEAS. It’s just a great environment for early career scientists like myself.”

While synthesis and product development were challenging, the outcomes make the entire process rewarding. “With TAMU-[Corpus Christi] and TAMU-Galveston, I think this has been a great opportunity to make better connections and work together,” Liu said. “This offered a great opportunity to know people better, know exactly what they’re doing so you can work together in the future.”

Olsen and TPWD also have an eye toward the future as they consider opportunities with their academic partners. “We know the types of work they’ve done in the past, and we know that we can work well with them. We have this network that we can reach out to and present questions to and vice versa,” he said. “The value of this is beyond just a product.” 

Being in a new environment, even outside of the Gulf, strengthened relationships back home. “We’re trapped in a little room, and it was very productive,” Quigg said. “That was the best thing! Being in a room all together for three days and everybody committing and genuinely being interested in the process and working together.”

The current GEI call for proposals is open for working groups and the postdoctoral fellowship! The deadline to apply is February 20, 2026. Learn more here.