Planning Next-Generation Fishery Forecasting Needs

Full Title: Planning a next-generation forecasting platform to achieve stock assessment and management objectives

The project team developed a roadmap for improving fishery forecasting by accounting for future environmental and management impacts to Gulf fisheries.

Lead Investigator: Nathan Vaughan, Vaughan Analytics, nathan.vaughan1@gmail.com

Natural Resource Managers: John Walter, Kate Siegfried, and Skyler Sagarese (NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center); Nick Farmer (NOAA Southeast Regional Office); and Ryan Rindone (Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council) 

Federal Program Officer/Point of Contact: Frank Parker (frank.parker@noaa.gov)

Award Amount: $81,047

Award Period: September 2021 – August 2023

Why it matters: Resource managers at NOAA’s Southeast Fisheries Science Center and the Gulf Council are responsible for determining annual catch limits for Gulf fisheries. In order to make these decisions, managers must be able to model the maximum sustainable yield of each fishery, which takes into account the environmental, regulatory, and social factors that influence future fishery exploitation patterns. However, a formal methodology does not currently exist for incorporating these future patterns into stock assessments and the calculation of fishing limits. 

What the team did: The project team held a series of workshops to investigate the key features needed to create a next-generation forecasting protocol. In the first workshop, they reviewed existing methods used for stock assessments within NOAA’s Southeast Fisheries Science Center. In the second workshop, they identified primary limitations in the existing methods that could be addressed to improved predictions. Finally, they considered different methods for stock assessments including graphical interfaces and software packages. 

Summary of outcome: This project resulted in an increased understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of existing stock assessment methods used in the Gulf and other southeastern fisheries. This improved understanding and increased collaboration between regions facilitated the development of multiple stock assessment method improvements that have successfully impacted management decision making for multiple species in the Gulf. The project team was awarded funding by the Science Program in 2023 to implement their plans and create improved fishery forecasting models.